*AUTHOR’S NOTE: We noticed an error in the previous version of this article and have corrected the information. On the second sentence, we mentioned that if you purchased a home around 2020, your home is worth 23% to 29% less today. We meant to say that if you purchased a home around 2022 that’s what the loss of value would be. Please refer to this version of the article for the most up-to-date stats.
I might sound like a broken record, but the reality is this: if you purchased a home around March 2022, there’s a strong chance your home is worth 23% to 29% less today. That’s not an opinion — it’s based on the Home Price Index (HPI).
The HPI measures real estate values across Ontario and Canada overall, and the numbers don’t lie. If you own a detached home in Guelph, Guelph/Eramosa, Halton Hills, Brampton, or Georgetown, values have declined over the last 4 years, approximately 24%, 23.8%, 28.5%, 29%, and 29.9%, respectively.
Over the last year alone, we’ve seen prices decline between 5.1% and 8%, depending on the neighbourhood. At this point, most people already know the market is declining. What stands out to me isn’t just the decline itself, it’s the consistency of the decline across multiple regions. That reinforces what I’ve been saying for a while now: we are still in a declining market in 2026.
Pick almost any area in Ontario, and you’ll see similar trends. I say this because I want sellers to understand that no price point is truly “safe” right now. These changes happen gradually, then suddenly the new numbers come out, and everyone is shocked — even realtors. That’s why adjusting to the market is so important.
Sellers need to remember that everyone is currently selling on the lower end of their expected range. You’re not alone. If you want to sell in today’s market, you have to be genuinely motivated.
Either motivated to upsize, downsize, buy your first home, relocate, or retire. Otherwise, what’s the point of selling? This market can be mentally exhausting for sellers. As agents, we absorb a lot of that stress ourselves while trying to keep our clients grounded, calm, and realistic throughout the process.
On the buyer side, we also see many buyers with unrealistic expectations. Some are hearing things on social media and submitting offers 50% below asking on homes that are already priced correctly for today’s market. Even I sometimes struggle to determine which buyers are serious and which ones aren’t. That said, buyers absolutely have the upper hand right now.
At the same time, many buyers remain hesitant to jump into the market, while others are pickier than ever. Part of me says buyers should be picky, but another part says this is exactly when opportunities are created. You can still be strategic while taking advantage of lower prices.
One thing I think people misunderstand is how long buyers are taking to make decisions. Some homes appear to sell quickly, but what most people don’t see is that buyers may have already viewed 30, 40, or even 50 homes before finally finding the one that perfectly fits their needs in terms of location, size, condition, and price. That’s why certain properties get snapped up quickly.
Here are some stats that might surprise you. In my trading area:
- Only 4% of homes sell in the first week
- 9% sell in the second week
- 7% sell in the third week
Those are real numbers. If a home sits on the market for more than 30 days without a price adjustment, statistically, it only has about a 5% chance of selling over the next month. That tells me the first 30 days of a listing are the most important.
Once you get into the $1.5 million-plus price range, the story changes even more. There simply aren’t as many buyers who can afford those homes — or, if I’m being honest, want to purchase them in today’s environment.
I’m also noticing that larger acreage properties in the 25- to 50-acre range are beginning to drop below the $2 million mark. Previously, sellers in that category were hesitant to adjust, but eventually, every segment of the market feels the pressure. Right now, if you asked buyers what the biggest factor influencing their decision is, 9 out of 10 would say price. Think about it this way: if your home is worth $2 million but you truly want to sell, price it at $1.8 million and make an impact.
I do believe the market will eventually balance out. My guess is sometime next year. However, I want to be clear: I personally don’t believe we’re going to see strong price increases anytime soon. People forget that the market started declining in 2022 — four years ago now — and we are still trending downward. So when I hear someone confidently say, “The market will go up next year,” I honestly don’t even know how to respond anymore.
With many economists forecasting higher inflation and rising unemployment, buyers are taking a more cautious approach and waiting longer to make a move.
From Experience
One of the most devastating things for a realtor in today’s market is watching a seller turn down a strong offer, only to accept a lower one months later.
For example: A home is listed at $1,300,000. An offer comes in at $1,200,000 and negotiations stall around $1,250,000 because the seller refuses to move forward.
I show the seller the market data. I explain what’s happening. I plead with them to take the offer. But they still won’t do it.
At that point, my stomach sinks because I already know the next 60 days are going to be mentally and emotionally difficult for them.
Eventually, the seller changes their mind and asks me to call the buyers back — but by then, those buyers have already purchased something else.
A new offer eventually comes in at $1,200,000, and now the seller accepts.
That seller lost $50,000 because they wanted more from a market that simply couldn’t give it.
Most active agents could tell you about several stories like this. It’s a hard concept for sellers to accept that sometimes listing lower — or accepting less early — can actually net you more money in the long run. When you list your home, be prepared, be strategic, and be priced competitively. Come onto the market hard and fast. The market adjusts quickly, and the next comparable sale will likely be lower.
The Bright Side: New Construction
On a more positive note, new home sales are up during the first quarter of this year, largely due to the federal and provincial HST rebate programs. For the first time in over a year, new construction homes are beginning to move again, and in the short term I think this policy is helping builders.
However, I also worry about the long-term effects. I’m already seeing newer resale homes especially homes built within the last two or three years directly competing against builders. In many cases, resale sellers are being forced to lower their prices in order to compete.This strategy may help builders clear current inventory, but I see two major issues:
- It lowers resale values today, and when the rebate eventually ends, builders will have to add HST back onto pricing, making their homes appear overpriced compared to the market.
- It doesn’t necessarily encourage builders to build more homes long term because construction costs remain high. Once the rebates disappear, new construction activity could slow dramatically again.
Time will tell. At the end of the day, most of this shouldn’t come as a surprise. There’s experience behind these opinions, and whether you agree with them or not, I hope this perspective helps someone make a better decision when it comes to buying, selling, or simply staying put.
Buyers know exactly what’s going on right now — and if you want to get them through the door, your price needs to reflect that from the start.
What I’ve Learned The Past 4 Months
For Sellers
- If you have no showings, your home is overpriced.
- If you think you don’t need to prep your home, you’re wrong.
- Market pricing today often means listing below the last comparable sale.
- The market adjusts quickly, so you need to adjust quickly too.
For Buyers
- Don’t be afraid to submit an offer, even if the asking price feels high — many sellers already know where the market is.
- If you need to sell your current home, get it on the market first.
- Buying at the “best price” doesn’t always get you the best house.
- Don’t be afraid to walk away.
Even in this market, a well-priced home can still sell quickly — but that kind of success comes from planning your listing strategically.
Final Thoughts
There’s a lot changing right now.
And while the headlines can be noisy, the reality on the ground is a lot more straightforward:
The market is slower. Buyers are cautious. And strategy matters more than ever.
My job is to stay on top of all of it — locally, nationally, and globally — so that when you’re making a decision, you’re doing it with real information, not guesswork.
If you’re ever thinking about selling, buying, or just want to understand what’s happening in your neighbourhood…
I’m always happy to help.
Team Dawe Real Estate